I was recently at Eastern Wineries Exposition 2024 in Syracuse, New York. It was great to see each other Countless wine makers and winery owners glad to see familiar faces, and get a chance to talk shop with everyone over a glass of wine.
The big subject of the three day event, as far as I both overheard and discussed with folks was the CLIMATE. The question was how ever, which CLIMATE were we talking about - the Weather or Business?
Certainly, the immediate worry is the weather. It's been way too sunny and way too warm. Vines are starting to wake up. Those form more southerly climates already had water coursing through the veins of their plants. Many were worried at the prospect of bud break. Its way too early for bud break. YET NEW REPORTS TODAY COME FROM AFTON MOUNTAIN OF BUD BREAK - A SOLID TWO WEEKS EARLY. And even the most modest of home gardeners know the effect of a late frost. Or even a late snow in April. Yes, those April snows are dramatic, and wilt away quickly. But a cold north wind is always the biggest fear, even as late as May 19th or so. It's happened plenty of times to the more northern wineries on the east coast.
These are the kinds of things that keep a farmer awake at night. Do you have enough of a system to keep the frost at bay once your vines have budded out? Watching the weather, and the ten day forecast and reading the Farmer's Almanac is only enough to amplify the itch - it does nothing to suave the pain. Do you have fans? Sprinklers? Helicopters? Or is your answer to light a candle at your local house of worship? Because the weather is changing. The Hudson Valley is now another, lower, warmer zone than it was five years ago. "About half of the country moved into a slightly warmer zone in the Agriculture Department's new “plant hardiness” map " reported the New York Times in 2023. The climate has already changed.
Like wise, their was much agitation about the business CLIMATE. Especially because of the article I wrote "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds: The Craft Beverage Boom is About to Go Bust!" many people approached me asking me if I had any better news. I asked many what their own experience was. And many said that business was slower, and that they were hoping it would pick up. When I pointed out that our business cycles lower in the first quarter or so, many said they understood this - but that sales were off compared to previous years sales for the same period.
If you were a smart business, and you pivoted during the Pandemic, you made out like a bandit. The two heavy years of the Covid era left many with full pockets and empty barrels. Many consumers, faced with the option of drinking at home, embraced the opportunity to up their wine, beer, and cocktail game. No drunk driving. No DWI. Just good old fashioned relaxation with an adult beverage.
But as we have come out of our alcohol laden stupor, many are forsaking their ways, and "cleaning up." Low-alcohol and no-alcohol seemed to be the new mantra. How are wineries to deal? And how do they gain sales in a marketplace filled with competitors - craft beverage businesses. Because, by now, most winemakers admit, they share the craft beverage space with breweries, cideries, and distilleries. They are not ancillary businesses anymore, they are forces to be contended with.
We are currently living in the Golden Age of Craft Beverages. There have never before been more wineries, breweries, cideries, or distilleries as there are now. Each segment, each business, cannibalizes their neighbor or the like.
The call for low-alcohol products is another article completely. But again, wineries are being forced to pivot - and for how long? Some of course will not. They have ardent followers, and they will weather whatever the next trend happens to be. Others, who are not as secure, and who compete for more adventurous dollars, will be forced to compete. More spritzers. More slushies. More light sangrias.
Anyway, the CLIMATE (depending on if you're talking about weather or business) is what's coming, and there's no changing it. You are either prepared for it, or you are prepared to be impacted by it. But both are very real.